The Trump administration was discussing the acquisition of Intel shares, SHFE tin prices fluctuated at lows [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Briefing on August 19, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) opened lower in the night session and fluctuated at lows, closing at 266,300 yuan/mt, down 0.18% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) According to a White House official and other sources, the Trump administration is discussing acquiring about 10% of Intel (INTC.O), which could make the US the largest shareholder in the troubled chipmaker. Sources say the federal government is considering a potential investment in Intel that would involve converting some or all of the grants it received under the CHIPS and Science Act into equity. Intel was previously slated to receive $10.9 billion in CHIPS Act funding for commercial and military production. This amount is roughly sufficient to cover the targeted stake. At Intel's current market value, a 10% stake in the chipmaker is worth approximately $10.5 billion. The exact size of the equity stake and whether the White House chooses to proceed with the plan remain in flux, according to the sources. (2) Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, wrote that in July, national passenger vehicle manufacturers wholesaled 2.22 million units, setting a record high for the month, up 13% YoY and down 11% MoM; from January to July, national passenger vehicle manufacturers wholesaled 15.5 million units, up 12.4% YoY. Affected by retail adjustments, the YoY growth rate of wholesale passenger vehicles in July was 7 percentage points higher than the retail growth rate. In July, domestic automakers wholesaled 1.58 million units, up 20% YoY and down 5% MoM; mainstream joint venture automakers wholesaled 440,000 units, up 7% YoY and down 21% MoM; luxury car wholesalers sold 200,000 units, down 16% YoY and 25% MoM. (3) Premier Li Qiang chaired the ninth plenary meeting of the State Council: continuously stimulating consumption potential, accelerating the cultivation and expansion of new growth points such as service consumption and new-type consumption; taking strong measures to consolidate the stabilization trend of the real estate market.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in main producing areas like Yunnan is tightening, and some smelters may maintain production cuts or small-scale maintenance in August (Bullish ★). (2) Demand side: PV industry: After the installation rush, orders for tin bars in east China's PV sector have declined, and operating rates at some producers have decreased; Electronics industry: South China's electronic terminals entered the off-season, coupled with high tin prices, end-users are showing a wait-and-see sentiment, and orders are only maintained at just-in-time procurement levels; Other sectors: Such as tinplate and chemicals, demand remains stable without any unexpected growth.

Spot market: Yesterday, spot market transactions were mediocre, with some traders reporting around 20 mt of deals, mostly just-in-time procurement by downstream enterprises, including some post-pricing orders. 整体下游及终端企业采买情绪不佳。

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